Moody’s Investors Service projects 80 percent of the securities won’t make scheduled payments based on historical declines of 3 percent to 4 percent in U.S. smoking. A U.S. Food and Drug Administration proposal in July to cut the amount of nicotine in cigarettes to non-addictive levels cut tobacco bond returns 0.4 percentage point in the third-quarter, a potential buying opportunity, Barton said. Tobacco companies are expected to vigorously oppose the proposal. “Near-term, we don’t see a ban of nicotine in cigarettes," Barton said. There’s also value in certain zero-coupon tobacco bonds trading at discounts of more than 50 percent to accreted value that may be refinanced, said Ben Barber, who manages Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s $5.2 billion high-yield muni fund. The fund returned 8.2 percent through the third quarter and had 8.8 percent of assets in tobacco debt at the end of August. Nuveen stumbled on its investment in FirstEnergy Solutions, the power-generation unit of FirstEnergy Corp.
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